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美國股市在近幾周大幅反彈后再創(chuàng)新高,但這未必就能讓人們相信,美國這個世界最大經(jīng)濟體能夠徹底躲開席卷全球的經(jīng)濟逆風。下面請看這篇雙語新聞。
Much has been made by Wall Street about how the US economy can prosper and stand alone as the eurozone and Japan face intractable problems, China wrestles with slower growth, and the outlook dims for the likes of Russia and Brazil. Against this unsettling backdrop, the argument runs that US equities look good and stand to attract foreign buyers in part because the rising dollar helps boost the value of American holdings for overseas investors.華爾街極力鼓吹美國經(jīng)濟能在歐元區(qū)和日本面臨棘手問題、中國疲于應(yīng)對增長放緩以及俄羅斯和巴西等國前景轉(zhuǎn)暗之際保持一枝獨秀。在令人不安的大背景下,持這種觀點的人認為,美國股市之所以欣欣向榮并能吸引外國買家,部分原因在于美元走強有助于提升海外投資者所持美國資產(chǎn)的價值。
Drill a little deeper into the S&P 500’s performance and one discovers a less than soothing picture. Namely, the market’s rebound has been led by densive sectors, notably utilities, consumer staples and healthcare stocks. Hardly a ringing endorsement of a robust US economy. Indeed, energy, materials and consumer discretionary sectors remain notable laggards during the current quarter, a performance that also typifies their behaviour this year.更深入地分析標普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)成分股的表現(xiàn),你就會發(fā)現(xiàn),情況并不那么讓人樂觀。換句話說,市場的反彈是由防御性板塊拉動的,尤其是公共事業(yè)、必需消費品和醫(yī)療保健股。這很難算是美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)強勁的有力證明。事實上,能源、原材料和非必需消費品板塊本季度的表現(xiàn)仍明顯落后于大盤,而且這種表現(xiàn)今年以來簡直是家常便飯。
Such a divergence among the largest S&P sectors shows investors are not backing those areas of the market that would signal the US economy is gaining altitude. The outperformance by densive sectors suggests that the message being sent by low long-term Treasury yields has been heard by equity investors.標普500指數(shù)主要板塊之間出現(xiàn)的這種分化,顯示出投資者支持的并非那些標志著美國經(jīng)濟正在走強的市場領(lǐng)域。防御性板塊的突出表現(xiàn)說明,股票投資者已經(jīng)領(lǐng)會到了長期美國國債收益率偏低釋放出的信號。
For all the cheering about the current earnings season surpassing expectations, albeit from the usual low bar, the outlook for coming quarters has slipped. While third-quarter earnings have seen companies largely avoid fallout from a stronger dollar and weaker global growth hurting earnings, the downbeat guidance has lt a mark.眼下正值財報季,盡管發(fā)布出來的財報情況好于之前的預(yù)期(當然預(yù)期原本就不高)、令投資者歡欣鼓舞,但未來幾個季度的前景已開始變得有些黯淡。三季度企業(yè)利潤基本沒有受到美元走強、全球增長走弱的沖擊,但悲觀的盈利指引給人們留下了深刻的印象。
Rlecting their poor price performance, energy and materials led the downward profit revisions for the S&P 500 as sliding oil and commodity prices weighed heavily.石油和大宗商品價格下跌對能源和原材料股影響明顯,這兩個板塊的股票是標普500指數(shù)成分股中利潤預(yù)期下調(diào)幅度最大的,它們的股價表現(xiàn)也不佳。
Equity bulls extol the boost for consumers’ wallets from cheaper petrol prices. However, the internal dynamics of the broader market suggest investors are still waiting for stronger sales growth that only comes from a sustained recovery in spending.看漲股市的投資者稱,石油價格下跌讓消費者的錢包鼓了起來。然而,大盤內(nèi)部各板塊的表現(xiàn)反映出,投資者仍在等待銷售增長走強,而這只能來自于消費的持續(xù)復蘇。
Amy GUO 經(jīng)驗: 17年 案例:4539 擅長:美國,澳洲,亞洲,歐洲
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