FT社評(píng)：全球經(jīng)濟(jì)今年面臨諸多風(fēng)險(xiǎn).

　　What lies ahead for the world economy in 2016? The good news is that it is almost certain to grow. Only a huge adverse shock — another global financial crisis or a war among great powers — would stop growth altogether. According to Consensus Forecasts, global growth is expected to be 2.8 per cent in 2016, up from 2.6 per cent in 2015. This forecast looks quite tolerable. But it hides important economic divergences and downside risks.

　　2016年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景如何?好消息是，幾乎可以肯定全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將實(shí)現(xiàn)增長。只不過，如果發(fā)生巨大的負(fù)面沖擊——爆發(fā)另一場(chǎng)全球金融危機(jī)或大國之間的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)——可能會(huì)使全球經(jīng)濟(jì)完全停止增長。根據(jù)共識(shí)預(yù)測(cè)(Consensus Forecasts)，2016年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)增長2.8%，較2015年的2.6%有所上升。該預(yù)測(cè)看起來相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)。但是它掩蓋了重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)差異以及下滑風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　Virtually all high-income economies have returned to growth. The eurozone economy is forecast to grow 1.7 per cent in 2016, up from 1.5 per cent in 2015. The UK economy is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent and the US economy by 2.5 per cent. Japan’s is forecast to grow 1.2 per cent in 2016, up from 0.6 per cent.差不多所有的高收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體都已經(jīng)恢復(fù)增長。2016年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將增長1.7%，較2015年的1.5%有所提高。英國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將增長2.3%，同時(shí)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將增長2.5%。2016年日本預(yù)計(jì)增長1.2%，高于2015年的0.6%。

　　Asia (excluding Japan) is forecast to lead the world economy, once again, with growth of 5.7 per cent. India’s is expected to be the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with growth of 7.8 per cent in 2016, against 6.5 per cent in China. But Brazil and Russia are in recession: the former’s growth is forecast at minus 2.2 per cent in 2016, after minus 3.5 per cent in 2015. Russia’s growth is forecast at minus 0.2 per cent, against minus 3.8 per cent in 2015.亞洲(除日本外)有望再次領(lǐng)跑全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，預(yù)計(jì)增長率為5.7%。印度有望成為全球增長最快的大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，預(yù)計(jì)2016年增長率為7.8%，而中國的預(yù)期增長率為6.5%。但是，巴西和俄羅斯正陷于衰退之中：2016年前者的增長率預(yù)計(jì)為-2.2%，延續(xù)其2015年-3.5%的衰退趨勢(shì);俄羅斯增長率預(yù)計(jì)為-0.2%，而其2015年增長率為-3.8%。

　　The end of the commodity boom, especially the collapse in the price of oil, has created complex risks. The fall in commodity prices is bound to turn some of the debt of commodity-producing companies increasingly bad. It has also lowered government revenue and so increased fiscal dicits in commodity-dependent economies. At the same time, the fall in commodity prices raises the real incomes of consumers. This should boost their consumption. At the country level, Australia, Canada, Russia, Brazil and South Africa are important losers, while the eurozone, Japan, China and India are winners.大宗商品繁榮期結(jié)束、特別是油價(jià)暴跌，給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來了多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。大宗商品價(jià)格下滑必然使大宗商品生產(chǎn)商的部分債務(wù)問題日益惡化。它還使得依賴于大宗商品的經(jīng)濟(jì)體的政府收入下滑，并因此導(dǎo)致其財(cái)政赤字?jǐn)U大。同時(shí)，大宗商品價(jià)格下滑使得消費(fèi)者的實(shí)際收入增加，這應(yīng)會(huì)促進(jìn)其消費(fèi)。在國家層面上，澳大利亞、加拿大、俄羅斯、巴西和南非是主要的輸家，而歐元區(qū)、日本、中國和印度則是贏家。

　　Macroeconomic divergences have also opened among high-income economies. The Federal Reserve started a tightening cycle in monetary policy, with a rise in interest rates in December 2015. The Bank of England might follow suit in 2016. Meanwhile the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still aggressively loosening.在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面，高收入經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間也出現(xiàn)了差異。2015年12月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)宣布加息，開啟貨幣政策收緊周期。2016年，英國央行(The Bank of England)或許將效仿此舉。與此同時(shí)，歐洲央行(ECB)以及日本央行(Bank of Japan)仍將積極地放松貨幣政策。

　　The beginning of the US tightening cycle is likely to keep the dollar strong. The combination of falling commodity prices and a strong dollar with higher US interest rates will add to the stresses on many borrowers, particularly on those whose borrowings are mainly denominated in the US currency.美國進(jìn)入銀根收緊周期很可能使美元保持強(qiáng)勁。大宗商品價(jià)格下滑、美元走強(qiáng)、再加上美國利率升高，將加大很多借款人的壓力，特別是那些債務(wù)主要以美元計(jì)價(jià)的借款人。

　　Along with these divergences are at least four significant uncertainties. The first is whether the Fed’s decision to begin tightening turns out to be a wise one or an error so serious that it must be reversed. A second is whether the stresses within the eurozone, in particular weak demand and high unemployment, trigger a new round of crises. The third and most important is whether the Chinese government manages the challenges of rorming its unusually investment- and credit-dependent economy, while avoiding a destabilising depreciation of the renminbi. The last is whether difficulties in commodity-dependent economies trigger a new wave of financial crises.除這些差異外，至少還有4個(gè)重要的不確定因素。第一點(diǎn)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)收緊貨幣政策的決定，到底是明智的選擇，還是必須被逆轉(zhuǎn)的嚴(yán)重錯(cuò)誤。第二點(diǎn)，歐元區(qū)的內(nèi)部壓力——特別是需求低迷和失業(yè)率居高不下——是否會(huì)觸發(fā)新一輪危機(jī)。第三點(diǎn)也是最重要的一點(diǎn)，中國政府能否戰(zhàn)勝挑戰(zhàn)，改革其異常依賴于投資和信貸的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式，同時(shí)避免人民幣出現(xiàn)破壞穩(wěn)定的貶值。最后一點(diǎn)，依賴于大宗商品的經(jīng)濟(jì)體面臨的困難是否會(huì)觸發(fā)新一輪金融危機(jī)。

　　In addition to largely economic uncertainties lie geopolitical risks. Populist politics are on the rise. Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China are inclined towards belligerence. Parts of the Middle East are in chaos.除了主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性以外，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)還面臨著地緣政治的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。民粹主義政治抬頭。弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的俄羅斯和習(xí)近平治下的中國表現(xiàn)出軍事強(qiáng)硬的傾向。中東部分地區(qū)處于混亂之中。

　　Managing these various risks will demand patience and wisdom — qualities not in great supply. Nevertheless, the world economy will probably stay on the rails, as it did in 2015. Another year of continued, albeit so-so, growth is the likely outcome. It could be even better. But it is more likely to be worse.處理以上各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，需要耐心和智慧——而這些品質(zhì)在當(dāng)下并不多見。話雖如此，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)有很大可能將保持在正軌上，就像2015年一樣。全球很可能又將迎來雖然表現(xiàn)平平、但繼續(xù)增長的一年。情況甚至有可能更好。但是情況更糟的可能性更大。