【雙語閱讀】明年美國就業(yè)形勢看好.

　　簡介：美國就業(yè)市場籠罩著重重陰云──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財政懸崖”。但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機，明年勞動者找工作的前景實際上還相當不錯。

　　Jobs Picture Should Brighten in 2013

　　Plenty of dark clouds loom over the U.S. job market -- particularly the potential double-punch of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.

　　But if the U.S. can avert that Washington-made crisis, the outlook for workers finding jobs is actually looking pretty good for next year. For one thing, the damage of superstorm Sandy will have to be repaired, meaning jobs in construction and retail. Businesses, meanwhile, which have held off investing and hiring because of uncertainty over the fiscal outlook, might finally open their wallets. That means more jobs, too.

　　Employers have stepped up their hiring recently, adding 171,000 jobs in October and an average of 157,000 a month so far this year. That&aposs a better pace than last year and the strongest job growth since 2006, Labor Department data show.

　　Of course, the recovery of the job market has been, and probably will remain, incremental. Job growth needs to be much stronger to actually make a big dent in unemployment, which remains high at 7.9%, though down from 10% three years ago.

　　The government&aposs next snapshot of the job market, due Friday, will be distorted by Sandy, which devastated the Northeast in late October, leaving many jobless. Economists say Sandy could temporarily knock anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 off of the government&aposs jobs tally for November, resulting in job growth of under 100,000 or even much less.

　　But economists generally expect the momentum of the recent past to resume and continue once storm distortions abate. The 45 economists who responded to The Wall Street Journal&aposs latest monthly forecasting survey saw the jobless rate falling to 7.8% by next June and 7.5% by the end of 2013. Some say job growth could accelerate from its slow pace. &aposI think businesses are going to have to hire,&apos said Bob Baur, an economist with Principal Global Investors.

　　Four factors should fuel the jobs recovery in 2013:

　　Housing is finally recovering. Home values are up 7% nationally through the first nine months of 2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Meanwhile, home-building is gaining traction, which means more jobs for construction workers, contractors and builders. Some 29,000 new construction jobs have been added since May. There&aposs &aposa significant thawing in labor conditions in the construction market,&apos notes Andrew Wilkinson, economist at Miller Tabak & Co. It&aposs not just construction crews. Retailers who cater to Americans furnishing, repairing and improving their homes also will need to hire.

　　Federal, state and local government job cutbacks are slowing. More than 250,000 workers at all levels of government lost jobs last year. This year, so far, about 20,000 have gained jobs. Worries about the nation&aposs debt and dicits likely will keep a lid on government spending and investments, economists say, but any jumps in, say, infrastructure spending would create jobs. At the least, government will be less of a drag.

　　Consumers are feeling better. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in four years, thanks to improvements in jobs, housing and the stock market. In the wake of the recession, Americans whittled down their debts, avoided borrowing and delayed purchases. That means the stage could be set for stronger consumer demand, which could nudge businesses that have put off hiring to add more workers. &aposBusiness has likely pushed productivity growth as far as possible,&apos Principal Global&aposs Mr. Baur says, suggesting employers will need to boost payrolls to meet stronger demand.

　　Manufacturing and sectors like leisure and hospitality should keep creating jobs. America&aposs factories drove the early part of the U.S. recovery and, although growth has slowed, they should continue to add workers selectively. After adding about 9,000 jobs a month in 2010, manufacturing has added about 16,000 jobs a month so far this year. Slowdowns in Europe, Japan and fast-growing China have hurt global trade flows. But lately, more corporate executives are realizing that making things in the U.S. has benits over, say, China. Meanwhile, the leisure sector, including restaurants, has been a reliable source of job growth all year.

　　The job market faces challenges. Some five million Americans have been out of work for six months, raising the risk their skills will erode and make it even harder for them to find jobs down the road. And fears of slowing revenue growth could keep a lid on hiring by companies. About 36% of U.S. executives expect the head count at their firm to fall, according to an October survey by advisory firm CEB, compared with 29% who said that during the summer.

　　Still, the optimistic view is that several roadblocks to recovery -- an over-indebted consumer, a moribund housing market and shellshocked banks -- are no longer holding back hiring. Barring an unforeseen shock to the economy, this could mean 2013 will be another year of slow but steady growth.

　　【中英翻譯對照】

　　明年美國就業(yè)形勢看好

　　美國就業(yè)市場籠罩著重重陰云──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財政懸崖”。

　　但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機，明年勞動者找工作的前景實際上還相當不錯。首先，超級颶風“桑迪”(Sandy)造成的破壞將需要修復，這樣就會帶來建筑業(yè)和零售業(yè)的工作機會。與此同時，因為財政前景的不確定性而暫停投資和招聘和企業(yè)可能最終打開錢包。這也意味著會有新的就業(yè)機會出現(xiàn)。

　　最近雇主已經加大招聘力度。勞工部數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月份新增就業(yè)崗位17.1萬個，今年以來平均每個月增加15.7萬個。這個速度高于去年，并且是2006年以來最強勁的就業(yè)增長。

　　當然，勞動力市場的復蘇一直是漸進的，并可能保持這種狀況。就業(yè)增長速度就需要在目前基礎上大大提高，才能讓失業(yè)率真正大為改觀。失業(yè)率雖然低于三年前的10%，現(xiàn)在仍然高達7.9%。

　　政府將于本周五發(fā)布新的就業(yè)市場報告，此次的報告將因颶風“桑迪”而出現(xiàn)失真。10月下旬的颶風給東北地區(qū)造成嚴重破壞，使很多人失業(yè)。經濟學家說，“桑迪”有可能導致11月官方就業(yè)崗位總數(shù)暫時減少10萬到15萬個，這樣一來，就業(yè)增量就不足10萬，甚至還要低很多。

　　但經濟學家總體上預計，一旦颶風造成的失真消失，前段時間的趨勢就有望恢復并延續(xù)。接受《華爾街日報》最新月度調查的45位經濟學家預計，到明年6月，失業(yè)率將降至7.8%，2013年年底將降至7.5%。部分經濟學家說，就業(yè)增長可能會擺脫現(xiàn)在的緩慢速度而加快。信安環(huán)球投資有限公司(Principal Global Investors)經濟學家鮑爾(Bob Baur)說，我覺得到時候企業(yè)將必須招人。

　　以下四個因素應該會對2013年的就業(yè)復蘇起到推動作用：

　　樓市終于出現(xiàn)反彈。S&P/Case-Shiller指數(shù)顯示，2012年前九個月全國房價上漲7%。與此同時，住宅建筑業(yè)正在發(fā)力，給建筑工人、承包商和建筑商帶來了更多工作機會。5月份以來建筑工作增加了2.9萬個左右。券商Miller Tabak & Co.經濟學家威爾金森(Andrew Wilkinson)指出，建筑市場的就業(yè)環(huán)境已經明顯解凍。解凍的不只是建筑業(yè)。為裝修住宅的美國人提供服務的零售企業(yè)也將需要招人。

　　聯(lián)邦、州和地方政府的裁員速度開始放緩。去年各級政府部門有逾25萬人失去工作。今年截至目前，約有兩萬人找到了工作。經濟學家說，美國的債務和赤字問題引發(fā)的擔憂可能將限制政府支出和投資，但基礎設施支出的任何反彈都會創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位。至少政府帶來的拖累會減小。

　　消費者的感覺變好。由于就業(yè)市場、樓市和股市狀況的改善，消費者信心達到四年來的最高水平。美國陷入衰退后，美國人縮減債務，避免借錢并推遲購買。這意味著消費者需求增強的條件可能已經具備，進而可能促使停止招聘的企業(yè)開始擴員。信安環(huán)球投資有限公司的鮑爾說，企業(yè)可能盡可能地提高生產力增長，他表示雇主將需要增員來滿足更強勁的需求。

　　制造業(yè)及休閑和酒店服務業(yè)應會繼續(xù)創(chuàng)造就業(yè)崗位。美國的工廠是復蘇早期的推動者，盡管增長放緩，工廠應該會繼續(xù)有選擇地擴員。繼2010年每月增加約9,000個就業(yè)崗位之后，今年以來制造業(yè)每月增加約1.6萬個就業(yè)崗位。歐洲、日本和中國經濟增長放緩損害了全球貿易流。但最近，更多公司高管開始意識到，在美國制造比在中國等地制造好處更多。與此同時，包括酒店在內的休閑服務業(yè)整年都是就業(yè)崗位增長的一個可靠來源。

　　就業(yè)市場面臨著挑戰(zhàn)。約有500萬美國人失業(yè)已有六個月之久，技能退化令他們未來更難找到工作的風險也加大。此外，收入增長放緩引發(fā)的擔憂可能會限制企業(yè)招聘。據(jù)咨詢公司CEB今年10月進行的一項調查顯示，約有36%的美國高管預計其公司的職員人數(shù)會減少;相比之下，今年夏天這一比例為29%。

　　不過，從樂觀角度看，阻礙復蘇的幾個攔路虎──身負重債的消費者、半死不活的樓市和心有余悸的銀行──已經不再對招聘造成負面影響。除非經濟受到意外的打擊，否則這可能意味著2013年將又是一個緩慢但穩(wěn)定的增長之年。

　　簡介：美國就業(yè)市場籠罩著重重陰云──特別是遭遇增稅、減支雙重打擊的可能性，即“財政懸崖”。但如果美國能夠避開由華盛頓造成的這一危機，明年勞動者找工作的前景實際上還相當不錯。

　　Jobs Picture Should Brighten in 2013

　　Plenty of dark clouds loom over the U.S. job market -- particularly the potential double-punch of tax increases and spending cuts known as the fiscal cliff.

　　But if the U.S. can avert that Washington-made crisis, the outlook for workers finding jobs is actually looking pretty good for next year. For one thing, the damage of superstorm Sandy will have to be repaired, meaning jobs in construction and retail. Businesses, meanwhile, which have held off investing and hiring because of uncertainty over the fiscal outlook, might finally open their wallets. That means more jobs, too.

　　Employers have stepped up their hiring recently, adding 171,000 jobs in October and an average of 157,000 a month so far this year. That&aposs a better pace than last year and the strongest job growth since 2006, Labor Department data show.

　　Of course, the recovery of the job market has been, and probably will remain, incremental. Job growth needs to be much stronger to actually make a big dent in unemployment, which remains high at 7.9%, though down from 10% three years ago.

　　The government&aposs next snapshot of the job market, due Friday, will be distorted by Sandy, which devastated the Northeast in late October, leaving many jobless. Economists say Sandy could temporarily knock anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 off of the government&aposs jobs tally for November, resulting in job growth of under 100,000 or even much less.

　　But economists generally expect the momentum of the recent past to resume and continue once storm distortions abate. The 45 economists who responded to The Wall Street Journal&aposs latest monthly forecasting survey saw the jobless rate falling to 7.8% by next June and 7.5% by the end of 2013. Some say job growth could accelerate from its slow pace. &aposI think businesses are going to have to hire,&apos said Bob Baur, an economist with Principal Global Investors.

　　Four factors should fuel the jobs recovery in 2013:

　　Housing is finally recovering. Home values are up 7% nationally through the first nine months of 2012, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Meanwhile, home-building is gaining traction, which means more jobs for construction workers, contractors and builders. Some 29,000 new construction jobs have been added since May. There&aposs &aposa significant thawing in labor conditions in the construction market,&apos notes Andrew Wilkinson, economist at Miller Tabak & Co. It&aposs not just construction crews. Retailers who cater to Americans furnishing, repairing and improving their homes also will need to hire.

　　Federal, state and local government job cutbacks are slowing. More than 250,000 workers at all levels of government lost jobs last year. This year, so far, about 20,000 have gained jobs. Worries about the nation&aposs debt and dicits likely will keep a lid on government spending and investments, economists say, but any jumps in, say, infrastructure spending would create jobs. At the least, government will be less of a drag.

　　Consumers are feeling better. Consumer confidence is at the highest level in four years, thanks to improvements in jobs, housing and the stock market. In the wake of the recession, Americans whittled down their debts, avoided borrowing and delayed purchases. That means the stage could be set for stronger consumer demand, which could nudge businesses that have put off hiring to add more workers. &aposBusiness has likely pushed productivity growth as far as possible,&apos Principal Global&aposs Mr. Baur says, suggesting employers will need to boost payrolls to meet stronger demand.

　　Manufacturing and sectors like leisure and hospitality should keep creating jobs. America&aposs factories drove the early part of the U.S. recovery and, although growth has slowed, they should continue to add workers selectively. After adding about 9,000 jobs a month in 2010, manufacturing has added about 16,000 jobs a month so far this year. Slowdowns in Europe, Japan and fast-growing China have hurt global trade flows. But lately, more corporate executives are realizing that making things in the U.S. has benits over, say, China. Meanwhile, the leisure sector, including restaurants, has been a reliable source of job growth all year.

　　The job market faces challenges. Some five million Americans have been out of work for six months, raising the risk their skills will erode and make it even harder for them to find jobs down the road. And fears of slowing revenue growth could keep a lid on hiring by companies. About 36% of U.S. executives expect the head count at their firm to fall, according to an October survey by advisory firm CEB, compared with 29% who said that during the summer.

　　Still, the optimistic view is that several roadblocks to recovery -- an over-indebted consumer, a moribund housing market and shellshocked banks -- are no longer holding back hiring. Barring an unforeseen shock to the economy, this could mean 2013 will be another year of slow but steady growth.

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